So I punched my numbers in Leasehacker, with a slight adjustment to the residual value, because BMW calculates it at $31,720$ (instead of the 35,000 I had estimated based on current used market) (Link and screenshot at the end of this post). It still falls to about the same price per month, and still very expensive to lease. It is about very close to financing for 3 years. Obviously my downpayment of 30,000 is the differentiator here, without it on the financing option, the financing monthly cost would be $2,286 per month. I used purchase price of 63,445$ (56,700 MSRP, 4,300 option, $2,445 freight and PDI) (Canadian cost)
Now with regards to some of the point brought up of leasing adds flexibility at the end of the leasing period. I don't see it the same way. With financing at the end of the financing option. I have the flexibility to either keep the car at no cost for as long as I want, or trade-it in at any time. It is mine to decide what I will do with it. Agreed you can buy the car at the end of the lease, but then realistically, you need to take a new loan at that point to pay the difference. I personally wouldn't recommend loan on a car past 5 years, so if I lease for the first 3 years, I spend 45,783 on the first 3 years, then need to finance 31,720 + tax (36,470) for the next 2 years. That would be higher monthly payments than for the first 3 years. (15,261 annually vs 18,235). That also ends up being more money than financing from the start
Now, I admit my scenario was a bit artificial, because I wouldn't normally finance over 3 years, but I wanted to look at it from a lense that would eliminate the "you have a new car every 3 year" argument. And I am lucky to have a large downpayment, which not a lot of people have (but that is also why I was asking the question, most scenarios didn't really fit my particular situation).
My conclusion at this point (and feel free to comment or correct me on these):
1. the large downpayment on financing was negating the apparent lower monthly payment advantage of the lease. With a large downpayment (about half the value of the car), leasing is about on par with financing. If I try to trade in the car after 3 years, leasing actually win mainly because of the investment opportunity of the unused downpayment, and the stupidly high interest rate on financing. If I decide to keep the car for longer then that might be a different story.
2. try to avoid putting a downpayment on a lease. Because if the car is totaled, the downpayment will be lost.
3. The leasing incentives, rebates and promotions are where the real opportunity is with leasing. Even more so now in the US with the EV rebates only applicable to leases for a lot of manufacturer. I need to find a way to find those kind of rebate in Canada. I would love to find a deal similar to the ones mentionned above.
4. I agree I need to go get prices from real dealers. It looks likes the incentives are where the solutions is really at, and the dealer website calculator obviously won't show all of them.
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