Still have the Mazda AT fluid and will change one of these weekends. I tow some with mine. In my GX even Toyota with their lifetime fluid recommends changes changes at 60k miles if you tow at all. Only problems I have ever had are AT flushes and vehicles that never had a fluid swap. Maybe wasted money to some with a partial swap but it certainly shouldn't cause an AT failure either.
No, it shouldn't, but...I learned the hard way.
Old mustang GT, changed the fluid, died soon. It was 15+ years old, no real shock here.
2002 Infiniti G20, 110k miles. Was doing great. Changed the fluid (dealership) and filters (no flush, drop and swap only). Several thousand miles later torque converter shot, clutch bands shot, would barely shift, tons of warning lights, total replacement necessary.
2010 Grand Jeep Cherokee, 68k miles. Doing great. Changed the fluid in the transmission, (again, dealer, drop and swap only), and it developed tq converter judder at 45mph or so. Never did feel right again.
Now let's go to my 1995 Trans Am. 170k miles on it, driven hard, did 100% fine for me. Previous owner reported that at 120k miles, the tq converter "grenaded" and "sent shrapnel through the transmission", also, somehow, an axle was damaged...hmmm...my bet is neutral drop. Anyway, did well until I sold it at 170k.
Every vehicle my Dad's ever had with 200k+ miles on it...well, they were Fords, older fords, with the AODE transmissions, which were TERRIBLE, but he never changed the fluid. Just added trans-medic to them when they began slipping too bad. They were old cop cars that he used for work, and had the absolute crap beat out of them by the time he even got them (at 80-90k miles usually).
My roommate in college had a Nissan Frontier. Countless miles. Odo died. Trans was fine. OEM fluid. His girlfriend had a Lexus (older model) with like 300k miles on it. OEM fluid. Was fine. Engine began leaking oil though. His next girlfriend had a Camry or something in similar condition. OEM fluid was fine.
I dunno, I've just NEVER seen ANY good come of changing transmission fluid. I HAVE had, and seen plenty of vehicles to fine with the OEM fluid left the hell alone.