You forget about combustion byproducts. Regardless of whether the oil is breaking down, its getting saturated with wear metals and byproducts of the combustion process. There is a set amount of additives in the oil which deals with such chemicals, helping to maintain the clean level of the engine. Overtime these additives deplete. The oil itself is still fine, but the additive packages are finite.
Additive package levels are commonly found by "TBN" #'s. (Total base #). This number depletes over time, and when it reaches a certain level, wear increases expodentially, regardless of whether the oil is synthetic or not.
This is why UOA's and not "my fathers grandfather's brother's sister's cousin always just added oil" systems are important. They tell you EXACTLY what the oil is doing, how much of the additive package is remaining, if the engine is working to spec, if you have any leaks, fuel dilution, etc.
Oil smell, color, taste, or what misc friends and family members don't compare to a scientific analysis of your own car's used oil.
There was recently a study on a camaro doing the whole "lets see how long the oil goes". Well they kept the same syn oil in the car, and just changed the filter and topped of the oil. What happened after 15-20k miles? They added up all the topoff and filter changes and noticed they had ended up changing the oil 1.75x. (In overall volume).
Visit Bob's for science and information, not guesses and bone shaking.
http://theoildrop.server101.com/ubb/ultimatebb.php