Did Volvo just seal the combustion engine's fate?

[yrwei52]

⋯ Thing with Coal is - it is about to die. Nothing can save it. The coal that was easy to be mined is long gone - the jobs it creates is few and far between with the added bonus of black lung disease.
Wind is much cheaper.
The 30% is on decline and will continue to decline till a critical point - after which it will crash, suppliers will stop supplying parts to keep the coal plants running. This fact alone will force utility companies to switch en masse to other forms. It wont be as sudden as kodak / digital photos because it takes time, but that time is what stands between coal and its demise.

When you have two of the world's largest Coal users - India and China trying to cut down on mining and usage, its a big sign of things to come. I would say by 2030 - Coal would RIP.

And the comment on UK emissions being affected only 2% is same as saying the chances of heart attack for Americans above 300 lbs decrease by only 2% if they cut down on junk food. You are literally taking the worst major country in EU as an example. France / Germany and Scandinavian countries trump UK by a big margin by switching to electric because their electricity generation is more reliant on renewables.

If people are interested - Netflix has a documentary Islands of the Future - where islands go green, it is a very nice set of 5-6 episodes.

You said coal power plants which count 30.4% of electricity generation are dying in the US, how about 33.8% of power plants using natural gas which are also burning the fossil fuel and generating huge amount of CO2? About 65% of electricity generation in the US was from fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, petroleum, and other gases), about 20% was from nuclear energy, and about 15% was from renewable energy sources in 2016. These percentage won't change too much in the next many years especially the US now has withdrawn from Paris Climate Change Agreement. Renewable energy sources are expensive. I simply want to remind people that electrical vehicles themselves may be clean, but electricity is not in the US and most areas in the world. You simply transfer the emissions from vehicles to power plants. You can't change it easily on electricity generation to much higher percentage of renewable energy sources for cleaner electricity and it would cost a lot to do it!

And you named China and India as the two largest coal users, but do you know the US is the second largest coal user for electricity generation based on a 2011 stats: China 3725.4 / 3825.1 coal / total non-renewable electricity production in TWh (TeraWatt-hour); United States 1873.4 / 2968.0; and India 714.5 / 835.5. That's why the US is the only country (although Canada withdrew in December 2012) who has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions signed in 1997.

Those articles are from IEEE Spectrum and they're more science-based than just more emotional talks. I believe they're more credible than some documentary from Netflix. At least you can see the other side of story which got ignored by many:

EVs and the Environment: The Discussion Continues
Questions about how to evaluate the greenness of electric vehicle technology provoke heated debate

 

[dougal]

That's why I said a lot has to improve before electric cars will be the norm. My one prerequisite to owning a electric car would be to have a solar powered home. If I can't get that, I'll stick with fuel efficient ICE vehicles.

1970's California. All that smog and pollution was 100% associated with the automobile. The cleaning up of the emissions on the modern auto has had dramatic benefits and is a great example of engineering.

 

[onno]

I don't think Volvo sealed ICE's fate, I think they're just a sign of the times. I think in 5 - 7 years electric cars will be major presence on the road, especially if you consider the worldwide automotive fleet.
Electric motors are better suited to powering vehicles, the problem has always been how to store their energy.

= Electric motors make torque in a much more useful range for motive power.

= Electric motors are 2 to 3 times more efficient then ICE when considering on-board energy in to energy at the wheels

= They're lighter and smaller for the amount of power they supply

=They don't require non-fuel consumables/renewables

= They're an order of magnitude simpler than ICE engines with all its valves and injectors and pumps and cams and manifolds.

= They don't require managing the timing of the various combustion and pumping parameters that ICE engines do.

= Their wear characteristics are far superior since all they do is spin instead of jerking a metal piston up and down inside a bearing sleeve.

= They don't even require transmissions, although I expect we'll see some two speed transmissions on electric cars at some point.

=They don't require all the devices that we use to spool ICE engines up to the point where they make useful power before engaging them: friction clutches, fluid clutches, torque converters etc.

=Their maintenance requirements are much lower and they're more reliable.

=They're much more compatible with self-driving systems.

There are just a lot of reasons that they're much better for this application.

Once range gets above 300 mi and recharging times down around 20 - 30 min. I think things will start to shift significantly. And I think automobile manufacturers will, for the most part, become proponents of the change.

Please, in the meantime, all-of-the-above mated to a diesel hybrid or hybrid plug-in. (This from a person that has $1000. down on a Tesla 3 but will probably cancel because of range issues (real or anxiety) with my co-driver.)

 

[sonoran]

Please, in the meantime, all-of-the-above mated to a diesel hybrid or hybrid plug-in. (This from a person that has $1000. down on a Tesla 3 but will probably cancel because of range issues (real or anxiety) with my co-driver.)

If I were you I'd wait and see what happens and how the market develops, especially if you've got an early reservation for a Model 3. There are a lot of people that want that car and are going to have to wait a year or two for it. You might be able to buy the car and turn around and sell it for more than you paid for it. You can always cancel later if things don't turn out to work that way.

 

[Srad600]

Well, I'd say Volvo likely hasn't killed ICE vehicles, but Germany, India, Norway and the like may just drive home that final nail. Seems all those countries are considering banning new gasoline powered vehicles by +/- 2030...that's only 13 years out folks. The writing is on the wall I think. Link to articles below:

https://electrek.co/2016/06/14/all-new-cars-mandated-electric-germany-2030/
https://news.vice.com/story/france-to-ban-gas-powered-and-diesel-cars-by-2040
http://fortune.com/2017/07/06/france-gas-car-ban-united-states/
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/norway-ban-gas-car-sales-2025/

 

[onno]

If I were you I'd wait and see what happens and how the market develops, especially if you've got an early reservation for a Model 3. There are a lot of people that want that car and are going to have to wait a year or two for it. You might be able to buy the car and turn around and sell it for more than you paid for it. You can always cancel later if things don't turn out to work that way.

I'm with you on this. My problem is sales tax and licensing fees, as I'm not exempt as a dealer would be. I'm in no hurry to cancel.

 

[Red MC]

Plug-in hybrids with 25-50 miles of EV range and the ability to travel on the highway using electric power alone are probably in the sweet spot for most people and I expect their market share to grow and eventually dominate a lot of the market. If you have a place to plug in overnight and a PHEV with enough EV range to cover your daily commute (or a typical day of driving), you can dramatically reduce your energy consumption without really making any sacrifices. Electric-only vehicles make sense for some people, but range and recharge time are serious limitations that aren't going away without an unexpected breakthrough in energy storage technology, so I don't think they make sense as an only vehicle for most people.

In the near term, EV adoption is going to be slower than a lot of people think because of battery cost. GM supposedly is getting the best deal in the industry at $145/kWH for battery cells, but still expects to lose money on the new Bolt EV, so they are limiting production and rationing them out to dealers. The Bolt and Leaf lost money over most of their sales life. GM and Nissan only recently started to make money on them, but they still lose money on battery replacements by selling them under cost. Tesla is in the enviable position of being able to pass on the full cost of their batteries (presumably) but still isn't making money. Sergio Marchionne famously asked people not to buy the Fiat 500e because they lose money on every one. Honda won't sell you their EVs or fuel cell vehicles, they only lease them, and only in markets (e.g. CA) that have mandated a certain number of EVs in their fleet. And much of the consumer demand is driven by the generous tax deductions.

It looks to me like the market for mainstream EVs and PHEVs is an artificial one created by fleet EV mandates on the larger manufacturers combined with large tax incentives. Until battery costs drop far enough for it to become a real market, I think most manufacturers are gong to minimize their losses by doing the minimum necessary to meet the mandates.

 

[Kaps]

^^^ Problem with this Red MC is that :
Pure EV enthusiasts hate hate extendable range EVs. They say its more complex and likely to breakdown. Model S has sold more numbers than few of its competitors combined but the 3 is the big thing world is waiting to see.
If its a hit - it will poach 3 Series / Audi A3 / Lexus ES 300h type customers easily and could overwhelm the market.
I doubt if range extended Hybrids will sell as you say. The only ones that are popular - BMW i3 and Volt are doing ok. Fusion / Accord are not doing that well. They have inherent problems with image being a big one.

I love the VW Golf GTE. It seems like a hybrid Mazda would make. 30 miles electric with a total range of 300+ miles per tank. More if you charge each night. 7.6 secs to 60 and handles decent.

Fiat / Honda are doing the EV thing for ZEV credits imo. And they do in Cali due the existing state laws. It sucks that Texas is not shouldering this push along with california despite being 1st in Wind powahh and 2nd in Tesla sales #s.

I am hoping both my current cars last enough for some significant improvements but as things stand - most corporate offices in Dallas / Ft Worth area wont allow for charging stations to be installed. That means this is now limited to home owners only.

 

[gova]

Frankly, me thinks Tesla did a while back ago. Let's go back to this thread in 10 years or so...

 

[Red MC]

Model 3 could be a game changer, but I'm a little skeptical. Can they really hit their production rate target of 20k/month? Are they going to be able to support that many vehicles out in the field? And most importantly, is selling a $35k Tesla financially viable/sustainable, considering other manufacturers with greater economies of scale haven't been able to make it work, and Tesla can't even turn a profit selling vehicles at the luxury end of the market.

My bullishness on PHEVs is due to the strong sales of the Volt and Prius Prime, and the anticipation I've seen on other forums for some of the newer PHEVs like the Chrysler Pacifica and Mitsubishi Outlander.

 

[dougal]

Well, this could have an impact:

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/news/uk-bans-gasoline-diesel-engines-2040/index.html

 

[finch204]

Well, this could have an impact:

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/news/uk-bans-gasoline-diesel-engines-2040/index.html

We'll probably run out of fossil fuel before then, or if not, fuel will probably be really expensive by then. It is inevitable but ICE vehicles will live on past 2020. I'm hoping the infrastructure is ready for electric cars before 2030.

 

[babyluv1]

Don't believe the hype!!

Sent from my SM-G530T using Tapatalk

 

[Red MC]

It's easy for them to say they're going to ban sales of ICE cars by 2040, but without a roadmap to get there it's meaningless. You have to build more electricity generation capacity, upgrade electricity distribution infrastructure, scale up battery production, and put in place some system of regulations and incentives to increase demand for electric vehicles. And you have to convince industry and consumers that you have a plan and are going to stick to it. Some people are feeling burned right now because the UK started incentivizing diesel in the early 2000s and made a big push for diesel adoption, and now they've turned 180 and diesel owners are being threatened with taxes and exclusion zones.

 

[Jonno21]

It's easy for them to say they're going to ban sales of ICE cars by 2040, but without a roadmap to get there it's meaningless. You have to build more electricity generation capacity, upgrade electricity distribution infrastructure, scale up battery production, and put in place some system of regulations and incentives to increase demand for electric vehicles. And you have to convince industry and consumers that you have a plan and are going to stick to it. Some people are feeling burned right now because the UK started incentivizing diesel in the early 2000s and made a big push for diesel adoption, and now they've turned 180 and diesel owners are being threatened with taxes and exclusion zones.

+1

The UK government and probably all governments will do anything to change facts, do "U" turns etc to increase revenue income from its own citizens.(rules)(sleep)

 

[Kaps]

Good news on Tesla 3 front. Though 35k model is only in black exterior and tan interior. And first off the 300 mile range 3 will be sold which stickers 44k and up.
So if you had a deposit in and wanted a base - your wait time is now 2 months more.
Also - the Bollinger offroad EV truck is amazing. there is a TFL video - it has a pass through frunk. does 4.5 secs to 60 and can tow 6000 pounds with 200 miles range. Their idea is for a farm truck sort of thing. It might start selling first quarter 2019. If it wasnt for 60K USD - and hard core offroad - 15 inches ground clearance, I might be interested a big

 

[Kedis82ZE8]

Saw that Bollinger video the other day...definitely interesting option if you didn't get too far off the beaten path .... I wonder what impact towing has on range? I know towing cuts into Tesla X range quite a bit.

 

[Kaps]

Charm for Bollinger is - if you were in a rural farm and nearest dealer is 50 miles, you could learn the basics and stock some high wear items and never see the dealer ever.
Plus it seems you can pull the dash out and add more gauges and customize.
The Prototype cant be the final production version - it seems to have no side airbags. Did you notice the cylinder with holes that rotates as Aircon. That is cool.
4 door + less ground clearance for the masses of folks who drive these only in city. Still 60K is a high dollar value.

 

[finch204]

Here's Mazda's take on the fate of ICE

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2017/08/mazda-impending-death-internal-combustion-overrated/

 

[dougal]

Here's Mazda's take on the fate of ICE

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2017/08/mazda-impending-death-internal-combustion-overrated/

Mazda is beating the proverbial farm on this...