Update! Did a leak-down compression test today, and a coolant test after I warmed up the engine. Good news is that there is no exhaust gas coming through the coolant system or through the oil pan. But there was a significant leak on cylinder 4. I could hear it, but couldn't pinpoint where the leak was going. So I did the gloves on the tailpipe trick and bingo. The gloves inflated. So next step is to remove the head. I knew I was going to have to anyway, but it's a good bit of knowledge gained.
My working theory at this point is that I have some bad exhaust valve(s) and I have leaking valve stem seals. But I'm not really convinced I have a blown head gasket. We will see....