So we ended up buying a 2016.5 GS AWD on the weekend! We had a trade-in, which added a bit of a twist into the negotiation process. On paper we paid MSRP, but they gave us more than Black Book for our trade.
We were expecting to get $5k for the trade, and that's what other dealerships had been offering us. The dealership we bought from offered us $7k. I doubt we would have even been able to sell it for $7k privately - 2 insurance claims, some surface rust forming, quite a few dents from parking lots, etc.
Running the numbers, getting $7k for the trade and paying MSRP worked out to the same as getting $5k for the trade and paying invoice +1%, so we're happy with the deal. Could we have got a better deal by really haggling and trying to get $7k for the trade AND pay invoice +X%, playing dealerships against each other, etc? Maybe. But doing it like this was super straightforward, and I don't want to spend a bunch of time over-analyzing the deal just to find out we could've saved a few hundred dollars. Haha.
We pick it up on Tuesday! Now to buy some winter tires and start getting it ready for the Winnipeg winter... First time with anything other than FWD, so I'm looking forward to it.