I think a lot of what you say is right, Webster. couple notes:
the Turbo2 is the Autobarn car, as confirmed in a post by autobarn over at Autoblog. the pics mazda is posting of the engine bay shows that their car was originally green, and there's an autobarn sticker on the Turbo2, so i'm believing that one.
I think the only way they justify doing the Speed2 is if, like Antoine said, they're hoping to appeal to a new generation of enthusiasts with something that's both small/affordable and fun/sporty. Mazda made a bet that they'd be able to win younger city drivers over with a fun drive, and i've seen reports saying mazdas moved twice as many 2s than they were expecting at least in some months, so maybe (hopefully) they're looking to up the ante again with a speed2 and go after the Abarth 500 and (sort of) the veloster.
The one other variable that no one's mentioned yet is a Fiesta ST. i've heard of one rumored for a bit now, and if that's for real, suddenly a speed2 makes a good deal more sense in terms of it's place in the segment.
either way, Mazda, if you're listening, I'm likely going to get into a used MS Miata or 2010 MS3, or a Veloster turbo next spring. A Speed2 would convert me from a used car buyer or even a competitor sale into a new car sale almost without question. Put me in a Speed2, please.
EDIT: also if mazda is listening, Dave Coleman is my automotive idol. if you could have him sign my speed2, i'd pay more for that
