March 19 (Bloomberg) -- On a wintry night in 2003, as U.S. troops gathered on Iraq's borders for an imminent invasion, President George W. Bush described what the country and the Middle East would look like once Saddam Hussein was deposed.
``A liberated Iraq can show the power of freedom to transform that vital region, by bringing hope and progress into the lives of millions,'' Bush said Feb. 26, 2003, at a Washington dinner.
Iraq and its region have indeed been transformed by the U.S. invasion that began four years ago today and its aftermath -- but in ways far removed from what Bush envisioned.
While Hussein is gone, Iraq has descended into internecine conflict. Sectarian murders rose last year to 1,200 in December from 200 in January before declining early this year, according to a U.S. Defense Department report. More than 140,000 American troops remain engaged, and almost 3,200 have died.
``Our expectations of what American military power could do were wildly exaggerated,'' said Andrew Bacevich, a former Army colonel and U.S. Military Academy professor. ``We're not in control of events. We may be the most powerful nation in the world, but we don't have the ability to impose a solution on this problem.''
Thousands joined anti-war demonstrations yesterday in Washington, New York, Los Angeles and other U.S. cities ahead of the conflict's fourth anniversary.
A war waged to spread democracy has discredited it even among Arabs who chafe under the repressions of their own governments, according to Amr Shobaki, an analyst at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo.
Options, Concerns
These activists survey the results of the U.S. campaign for democracy and see on the one hand Iraq's bloody instability and on the other electoral victories by Islamic fundamentalists, Shobaki said. ``The options seemed to be either chaos, like in Iraq, or Islamic groups rising to power, like with the Palestinians,'' he said.
In the past two years, Iraq has elected a Shiite-dominated government distrusted by Sunnis; Palestinians voted into power Hamas, a group condemned by the U.S. and Israel as terrorist; and Iranians elected as president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has called for Israel's elimination.
In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood, which opposes U.S. policy in the Middle East, emerged as the strongest opposition bloc after the 2005 parliamentary elections. The government responded by arresting scores of its members; Shobaki said the U.S. ``has been silent on the repression.''
Unemployment, Inflation
Iraq's economic problems have deepened since the March 20, 2003, invasion -- March 19 in Washington -- defying U.S. forecasts of quick recovery. Unemployment is estimated as high as 60 percent and inflation last year was 50 percent, according to the Pentagon report.
U.S. officials predicted shortly after the invasion that Iraqi oil production would rise by the end of 2003 to 3 million barrels a day from the pre-invasion level of 2.4 million; instead, it has sunk to 1.9 million barrels, according to Bloomberg estimates.
The Iraq output decline was a factor, along with rising global demand, in pushing up world oil prices, according to Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist for Deutsche Bank in New York. In the past four years, the production drop cost Iraq billions of dollars as global consumption drove crude past $50 a barrel.
In terms of the region's political balance, the biggest winner has been Iran, the U.S.'s staunchest adversary in the region, Middle East experts say. That rattles American partners such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who also are concerned that Iraq's Sunni-Shiite conflict may ripple into their countries.
Functioning Democracy
Bush administration officials, while acknowledging that success has proven elusive, said they haven't given up on creating a functioning democracy in Iraq.
``We see a democratic Iraq as the best path to a stable Iraq,'' said Brett McGurk, the National Security Council's director for the country.
McGurk said in an interview that any ``backsliding on a commitment to democracy would have serious consequences,'' particularly with Iraq's Shiite and Kurdish communities. If the new U.S.-Iraqi push to curb violence succeeds, today's stark sectarian divisions will ease, he said.
``Because of Iraq's history and because of the violence, you have seen an identity-based politics develop,'' McGurk said. ``What we hope for is that, as security takes hold and the political process matures, you will see more of an issue-based politics develop. There are signs of that happening already.''
Shift in Objectives
The Pentagon report, while saying the U.S. remains broadly committed to the goal of Iraqi democracy, concludes that a shift has taken place in at least short-term objectives.
The U.S. has given up for now on a search for an ``all- encompassing `national compact''' and is focusing on narrower goals, such as enactment of the long-promised law distributing oil revenue more equitably and holding new local elections, it said.
Bacevich sees a much broader strategic shift taking place. He said the administration's latest moves -- such as attending a recent regional conference that included Iran and Syria --amount to an implicit retreat from the goal of sweeping democratic transformation.
``All of those grand expectations no longer seem to figure in the administration's rhetoric,'' said Bacevich, now a Boston University international-relations professor. ``I would take that as evidence that tacitly the administration has scaled down its objectives, both in Iraq and more broadly in the region.''
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20070319/pl_bloomberg/afuoyef67xi4_1
``A liberated Iraq can show the power of freedom to transform that vital region, by bringing hope and progress into the lives of millions,'' Bush said Feb. 26, 2003, at a Washington dinner.
Iraq and its region have indeed been transformed by the U.S. invasion that began four years ago today and its aftermath -- but in ways far removed from what Bush envisioned.
While Hussein is gone, Iraq has descended into internecine conflict. Sectarian murders rose last year to 1,200 in December from 200 in January before declining early this year, according to a U.S. Defense Department report. More than 140,000 American troops remain engaged, and almost 3,200 have died.
``Our expectations of what American military power could do were wildly exaggerated,'' said Andrew Bacevich, a former Army colonel and U.S. Military Academy professor. ``We're not in control of events. We may be the most powerful nation in the world, but we don't have the ability to impose a solution on this problem.''
Thousands joined anti-war demonstrations yesterday in Washington, New York, Los Angeles and other U.S. cities ahead of the conflict's fourth anniversary.
A war waged to spread democracy has discredited it even among Arabs who chafe under the repressions of their own governments, according to Amr Shobaki, an analyst at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo.
Options, Concerns
These activists survey the results of the U.S. campaign for democracy and see on the one hand Iraq's bloody instability and on the other electoral victories by Islamic fundamentalists, Shobaki said. ``The options seemed to be either chaos, like in Iraq, or Islamic groups rising to power, like with the Palestinians,'' he said.
In the past two years, Iraq has elected a Shiite-dominated government distrusted by Sunnis; Palestinians voted into power Hamas, a group condemned by the U.S. and Israel as terrorist; and Iranians elected as president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has called for Israel's elimination.
In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood, which opposes U.S. policy in the Middle East, emerged as the strongest opposition bloc after the 2005 parliamentary elections. The government responded by arresting scores of its members; Shobaki said the U.S. ``has been silent on the repression.''
Unemployment, Inflation
Iraq's economic problems have deepened since the March 20, 2003, invasion -- March 19 in Washington -- defying U.S. forecasts of quick recovery. Unemployment is estimated as high as 60 percent and inflation last year was 50 percent, according to the Pentagon report.
U.S. officials predicted shortly after the invasion that Iraqi oil production would rise by the end of 2003 to 3 million barrels a day from the pre-invasion level of 2.4 million; instead, it has sunk to 1.9 million barrels, according to Bloomberg estimates.
The Iraq output decline was a factor, along with rising global demand, in pushing up world oil prices, according to Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist for Deutsche Bank in New York. In the past four years, the production drop cost Iraq billions of dollars as global consumption drove crude past $50 a barrel.
In terms of the region's political balance, the biggest winner has been Iran, the U.S.'s staunchest adversary in the region, Middle East experts say. That rattles American partners such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who also are concerned that Iraq's Sunni-Shiite conflict may ripple into their countries.
Functioning Democracy
Bush administration officials, while acknowledging that success has proven elusive, said they haven't given up on creating a functioning democracy in Iraq.
``We see a democratic Iraq as the best path to a stable Iraq,'' said Brett McGurk, the National Security Council's director for the country.
McGurk said in an interview that any ``backsliding on a commitment to democracy would have serious consequences,'' particularly with Iraq's Shiite and Kurdish communities. If the new U.S.-Iraqi push to curb violence succeeds, today's stark sectarian divisions will ease, he said.
``Because of Iraq's history and because of the violence, you have seen an identity-based politics develop,'' McGurk said. ``What we hope for is that, as security takes hold and the political process matures, you will see more of an issue-based politics develop. There are signs of that happening already.''
Shift in Objectives
The Pentagon report, while saying the U.S. remains broadly committed to the goal of Iraqi democracy, concludes that a shift has taken place in at least short-term objectives.
The U.S. has given up for now on a search for an ``all- encompassing `national compact''' and is focusing on narrower goals, such as enactment of the long-promised law distributing oil revenue more equitably and holding new local elections, it said.
Bacevich sees a much broader strategic shift taking place. He said the administration's latest moves -- such as attending a recent regional conference that included Iran and Syria --amount to an implicit retreat from the goal of sweeping democratic transformation.
``All of those grand expectations no longer seem to figure in the administration's rhetoric,'' said Bacevich, now a Boston University international-relations professor. ``I would take that as evidence that tacitly the administration has scaled down its objectives, both in Iraq and more broadly in the region.''
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20070319/pl_bloomberg/afuoyef67xi4_1
