Off Topic: Investment Thread

[Avoidin Deer]

MOD EDIT: Hey guys. This is a thread for all things finance/investment related. If some posts appear out of context, it's because they may have been moved from other threads where the conversation started shifting to finance. As with any other thread, please respect the opinions of others.

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It's $4! Get a couple or 4 shares. Afraid to lose $16?
(I have 4. )

If you had any idea what my investment timing is like...

I've thought of writing an investment book in Arabic, because the only way you could succeed is by following my example from right to left. (bang)

I just transferred some funds into my Vanguard account so I can buy a few shares. I see Mazda got a little bump from the China tariff deferral news yesterday...it supposedly lifted all Asian boats.

 

[Arcticshade]

If you had any idea what my investment timing is like...

I've thought of writing an investment book in Arabic, because the only way you could succeed is by following my example from right to left. (bang)

I just transferred some funds into my Vanguard account so I can buy a few shares. I see Mazda got a little bump from the China tariff deferral news yesterday...it supposedly lifted all Asian boats.

Hey Deer,

Did you ever figure out which was the right stock symbol? Are you buying OTC?

 

[Avoidin Deer]

Hey Deer,

Did you ever figure out which was the right stock symbol? Are you buying OTC?

It's MZDAY, not MZDAF.

There was a guy a couple of years ago who posted this "what's the difference" question on the web in a few places and only got a speculative answer on Reddit. I can tell you that the stock is listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, so part of the guy's answer makes sense to me.

Here's Investopedia's definition of a Pinksheet.
Here's Investopedia's definition of an ADR.

I'm placing my order through Vanguard. I'll call Monday and ask the specific difference and post back here.

 

[7eregrine]

If you had any idea what my investment timing is like...

I've thought of writing an investment book in Arabic, because the only way you could succeed is by following my example from right to left. (bang)

Hate replying just LOL but that made me chuckle. LOL

 

[Avoidin Deer]

Hey Deer,

Did you ever figure out which was the right stock symbol? Are you buying OTC?

Here is the difference between MZDAY and MZDAF.
I've linked to terminology definitions on Investopedia.

Since this is not an investment forum, this is not to be taken as investment advice (it's not)...it's just an explanation of the differences between the two ways Mazda stock is offered for sale here in the US. Mazda is listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

MZDAY is an ADR (American Depository Receipt)

-You do not directly own a share of stock with an ADR, you are buying a negotiable certificate issued by an American bank for a share OR PART OF A SHARE of stock in a foreign company. A U.S. financial institution holds the stock overseas.
-MZDAY represents half a share of Mazda stock (this is why it is half the price of MZDAF).
-Since you do not own the stock itself, you have no voting rights.
-These ADRs trade OTC (Over The Counter) and not on a centralized exchange.
-There may be a periodic maintenance fee charged by the bank for a given ADR. The industry average maintenance fees for ADRs range from 1 cent per share per quarter to 3 cents per share per quarter. I could not find the specific maintenance fee for MZDAY...Vanguard did not know.
-Because these are generally not heavily traded and the market is not deep, many institutions will only accept Limit Orders for ADRs like MZDAY (you specify maximum purchase price if you are buying/minimum sell price if you are selling)...they don't want their customers getting a nasty surprise.

MZDAF is Mazda stock itself

-MZDAF is the Foreign Equivalent of an entire share of Mazda stock that is traded on the Tokyo exchange.
-The "F" suffix is generally universal to denote Foreign Equivalent.
-You may get voting rights (my contact was unsure of this with MZDAF).
-You buy the stock OTC in US dollars.
-There may be transaction processing fees for Foreign Equivalents. MZDAF carries a $50 fee to buy and a $50 fee to sell (per transaction, not per share). This In/Out Fee versus the ADR maintenance fee is a major factor in deciding which to buy (how many shares, how long to hold, etc)

So you can buy either and still be owning Mazda stock. They each have their attendant costs and [potential] rights. As you can see online by looking each one up, the market for MZDAF is a lot shallower than the market for MZDAY.

 

[ColoradoDriver]

It's $4! Get a couple or 4 shares. Afraid to lose $16?
(I have 4. )

I'm still kicking myself for not buying AMD stock when I thought about doing so at sub $2 levels in 2015, and now it's back up to $30. If I had just thrown $50 or $100 at it, would have been a nice return.

 

[Avoidin Deer]

I'm still kicking myself for not buying AMD stock when I thought about doing so at sub $2 levels in 2015, and now it's back up to $30. If I had just thrown $50 or $100 at it, would have been a nice return.

I have a friend who wanted to sell his Apple stock early on when he had made a tidy profit. The Missus vetoed the idea. She was right.

I wish I bought Bitcoin in the early days.

 

[ColoradoDriver]

I have a friend who wanted to sell his Apple stock early on when he had made a tidy profit. The Missus vetoed the idea. She was right.

I wish I bought Bitcoin in the early days.

That too. I heard of Bitcoin back in 2009/2010 and my problem was that I just didn't understand it and how it had any value. I figured it would be gone and worthless in a while. Then it had a resurgence in what....2013ish? Wish I had gotten in then too, but again I didn't.

So many times I could have gotten in but didn't...

I did get in eventually before the big bubble towards the end of 2017 and made a bit of a return. I still hold some Bitcoin (and other crypto) just to hold and see what happens with it. I had bought 95% of it before it went super crazy, so even when it "crashed" last year, I am still ahead.

 

[ZoomZoomForever]

I'm still kicking myself for not buying AMD stock when I thought about doing so at sub $2 levels in 2015, and now it's back up to $30. If I had just thrown $50 or $100 at it, would have been a nice return.

I bought AMD when it fell to the $16ish area about a year ago. Was a no brainer to me. Its still a great buy at $30 now imo. Nothing showing it cant double that or get to $100 eventually. Great stock with massive growth potential. Tucking it away for 3-5 years.

 

[ColoradoDriver]

I bought AMD when it fell to the $16ish area about a year ago. Was a no brainer to me. It*s still a great buy at $30 now imo. Nothing showing it can*t double that or get to $100 eventually. Great stock with massive growth potential. Tucking it away for 3-5 years.

Yep I agree. Intel has really been floundering, but they are so much bigger than AMD. Meanwhile AMD has been killing it the past couple of years and making Intel look bad. I agree with your assessment. I think I'll pcik up a few and see what happens. If it doubles or more, great, if it goes down, excuse to grab more.

 

[ZoomZoomForever]

That too. I heard of Bitcoin back in 2009/2010 and my problem was that I just didn't understand it and how it had any value. I figured it would be gone and worthless in a while. Then it had a resurgence in what....2013ish? Wish I had gotten in then too, but again I didn't.

So many times I could have gotten in but didn't...

I didn't wanna get into mining and storing coins, so I bought the ETF stock instead, GBTC, and it paid off. In at $10, out at $17. It currently sits at $10ish again, so I may look to reenter at some point. Its way easier than the coins to buy and get rid of, so I probably will if it shows an upswing again.

 

[ColoradoDriver]

I didn't wanna get into mining and storing coins, so I bought the ETF stock instead, GBTC, and it paid off. In at $10, out at $17. It currently sits at $10ish again, so I may look to reenter at some point. It*s way easier than the coins to buy and get rid of, so I probably will if it shows an upswing again.

Yeah the biggest problems with coins was always how to store it (see Mt. Gox).

Lots of shady exchanges. Even non-shady exchanges, they can fail and your holdings are gone.

Store locally on a wallet program on PC and hard drive dies. You're screwed.

Get a USB wallet, many bad shady sources even on Amazon. Can't be 100% sure it's secure.

So many ways to lose it.

 

[Avoidin Deer]

If it doubles or more, great, if it goes down, excuse to grab more.

That's how it's supposed to work. If you thought it was a good buy at $10 and it drops to $5 and the underlying fundamentals have not changed, then it's twice the deal it was at $10.

A bunch of us at work started an investment club/partnership in 1990. We had a lot of experience in the group: purchasing management, contracts guys, finance folks. There were about 8 of as all told.

We started off with seed money and made monthly contributions. Each of us took ownership of an industry and brought recommendations to the table every month. After 5 years, we made damn little money. Everything we bought traded around a very narrow band the entire time. We disbanded.

I know a guy who brings up perpetually updating charts of what the market is doing in a real time mode and buys/sells based off of visual trends he spots by watching that mind-numbing stuff all day. He claims to have made enough money to have rented an apartment in town solely for this purpose because it has broadband access (we live in the sticks).

I stick to mutual funds.

 

[Chocolate]

Man, this thread got sidetracked. While we're throwing out our investment grievances on here, I always kick myself for not buying Amazon stock back in 2001 (not that I could have bought much at the time). I thought online shopping would take off that year because of terrorism and related fears (remember the Anthrax scare just one week after?). Well, it did.

 

[Chocolate]

Remember that thread back in August where we discussed Mazda stock? Somehow Tesla stock has more than doubled in the same time period. Crazy. Wouldn't have called that, no position.

It is mildly entertaining to read the posts and rage on Twitter by those who got destroyed by shorting the stock. So many arguments and it doesn't matter.

TeslaCharts (@TESLAcharts) | Twitter

The latest Tweets from TeslaCharts (@TESLAcharts). Charting the poster child of ZIRP absurdity. Catnip for TSLA bears. Not investment advice. Disclosure: Short TSLA via put options

twitter.com

 

[Avoidin Deer]

Remember that thread back in August where we discussed Mazda stock? Somehow Tesla stock has more than doubled in the same time period. Crazy. Wouldn't have called that, no position.

I sure do. I have been tracking the stock since then. It went up quite a bit but came right back down.

Back in 1990 or so, a group of us from work formed an Investment Club. We created a partnership, registered with an industry group, chucked money into the pot (and made monthly contributions), and each took an industry to analyze and to make investment recommendations. After 4 years or so, we were about where we started.

Those who make money at trading are better judges of human nature than I am. I recall spiting on the ground at the idea of bottled water ("It vends for a fraction of a cent at the faucet!!!") and Starbucks ("No one will pay that much when there's a 7-11 on every corner!!"). Look at what people have paid for Google, when it had no plans on how to turn a profit. In late 2017, its P/E was almost 60!!!

I think of some of this stuff as Beanie Babies...2¢ worth of fabric and a few navy beans worth $250 just because someone will pay that for it.

 

[ruthrj]

Those who make money at trading are better judges of human nature than I am.

Same here, buddy. Gave individual trades a shot once and let it go after about 6 months. Broke even due to one good bet. Never again. From here on out it’s index funds with rock bottom expense ratios. Diversification is key. 30% large caps, 20% mid, 20% small, 20% international equites and 10% US bonds. ~30 years until anticipated retirement so just rebalance every so often, up the bond exposure as I age and let it ride.

 

[Avoidin Deer]

Same here, buddy. Gave individual trades a shot once and let it go after about 6 months. Broke even due to one good bet. Never again. From here on out it’s index funds with rock bottom expense ratios. Diversification is key. 30% large caps, 20% mid, 20% small, 20% international equites and 10% US bonds. ~30 years until anticipated retirement so just rebalance every so often, up the bond exposure as I age and let it ride.

Good for you.
Place your bets and let them ride!!!

I retired a few years ago, and was shocked that since I was your age, the advice for retirees has gone from "CDs and Bonds" to "At Least 50% Stocks." You gotta have time to recover from bad events. I guess there is no One Size Fits All.

A few months ago I had a long conversation with a Voya rep regarding a question on my account, and we got on the subject of investment mix. Attached is a document he sent me. They conceived their own investment strategy...it's detailed on Page 5. Some manage it on their own, some pay to have Voya do the periodic remix. This is not a product, it's a strategy and a methodology.

There are 3 different Models from which to choose. Each Model has a Base mix [more dollars in equities] and a Defensive mix [fewer dollars in equities]. You can read the details of the components.

Their Remix Trigger is quarterly corporate earnings reports.
>If there has been an aggregate year-over-year earnings decline, the investments go to (or stay at in the case of consecutive negative year-over-year earnings) the Defensive mix.
>If the news is that earnings are flat or have grown, the investments go to (or stay at in the case of consecutive flat/positive year-over-year earnings) to the Base mix.

Although the driving events behind reported earnings might have happened up to 6 months prior (early in the previous quarter), the Voya guy pointed out that this is not a market timing tool. You're not gonna hit the peaks and valleys...ever.

So maybe this will be another tool in your kit. I'm not giving advice. I only throw this out because you mentioned how you are diversifying and that you change the mix every once in a while, and I recently came upon this. This might give you ideas on other market buckets or on defined remix triggers. It is an interesting read. But as you know, there are tons of "methods" out there.

 

[Unobtanium]

You know, the two most expensive and most dysfunctional purchases we make are houses and vehicles.

You get more transparency and better service buying a pair of shoes.

Why is a house dysfunctional?

 

[Avoidin Deer]

Why is a house dysfunctional?

1-Paid agents who are for the most part hobbyists, who are not professionals, and who seem to have no idea as to duty to the client.

2-A loan process that never seems to go right the first time. How is it that mortgage companies who are merchants in the trade and have been in that trade for years (or longer) always seem to come back for more information?